Bush Fails Intelligence Test

by Jung Hee Choi

Apparently, intelligence is not a strength of the Bush White House. Yet the foundation of his foreign policy--preemptive strikes as exemplified in the Iraq war--depends on precise intelligence.

New Yorkers protest during a visit to the city by President Bush.

This article compares the prewar claims of President Bush and the prewar estimates of U.S. intelligence with the facts uncovered by the massive David Kay-led U.S. inspection team. The team spent $300 million scouring Iraq for more than six months looking for weapons of mass destruction.

The comparison shows that the CIA vastly overestimated Iraq's WMD capabilities, and that President Bush in turn grossly exaggerated or even ignored the CIA's views in order to brand Iraq as a "threat of unique urgency" and a "grave threat to America."

LINKING IRAQ TO THE SEPT. 11 ATTACKS AND AL QAEDA

Bush: "Iraq and Al Qaeda have had high-level contacts that go back a decade." (White House press statement, 10/7/02) He also alleged that one of the ringleaders of Sept. 11 met with Iraqi intelligence before the attacks.

Intelligence: Before the war, senior intelligence officials described the allegations linking Saddam Hussein to Al Qaeda and the Sept. 11 attacks as "thin reeds" and found no evidence of the supposed meeting between the Sept. 11 hijacker and Iraqi officials. (Washington Post, 9/11/02)

Fact: Chief U.S. inspector David Kay found "no real connection" between Iraq and Al Qaeda. (David Kay, Senate Hearing testimony, 1/28/04) Bush was finally forced to admit: "We have no evidence that Saddam Hussein was involved with the Sept. 11" attacks. (CBS/AP, 9/18/03)

NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Bush: Saddam Hussein "could have a nuclear weapon in less than a year." (White House press statement, 10/7/02)

Intelligence: The prewar National Intelligence Estimate concluded it was highly unlikely that Iraq could build a nuclear bomb before 2007 and probably not until 2009. (George Tenet, CIA Director, Georgetown Address, 2/5/04)

Fact: Kay's team found no makings of nuclear weapons and said it would take numerous years for Iraq to build that capacity. (Kay testimony)

Bush: "Saddam has recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa." (State of the Union Address, January 2003)

Intelligence: Prior to Bush's statement, the CIA sent two memos to the White House strongly doubting the claim. (Washington Post, 7/22/03)

Fact: Joseph Wilson, who was sent to Africa by the CIA to investigate the uranium claim in early 2002, found that the information was based on forged documents and was utterly false. (CNN, 7/8/03)

Bush: "Iraq has attempted to purchase high-strength aluminum tubes suitable for nuclear weapons production." (State of the Union, 2003)

Intelligence: The Department of Energy, backed by the State Department's intelligence branch, told the White House three months prior to Bush's speech that the tubes were not usable for uranium enrichment. (Washington Post, 10/26/03)

Fact: Kay's team found no evidence that the tubes were appropriate for nuclear reconstitution or that the effort had even begun. (Kay testimony)

CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS

Bush: Iraq has anthrax and a "massive stockpile of biological weapons...capable of killing millions." (White House press statement, 10/7/02)

Intelligence: The prewar National Intelligence Estimate stated that Iraq had biological weapons and the elements of an active program that was "larger and more advanced than before the Gulf War." (Tenet address)

Fact: David Kay found no chemical or biological weapons in Iraq and said there is no evidence that the Iraqis had produced any since 1991. (Kay testimony)

Jung Hee Choi is an editor of War Times and the communications director for the Women of Color Resource Center in Oakland, Calif.

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